The South East Regional Authority has released a report making a socio-economic case for the maintenance of the Rosslare-Waterford-Limerick Rail corridor. Click the link below to download the report, the executive summary is below.

Maintenance of Rosslare Waterford Limerick Rail Corridor

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Context

The Rosslare–Limerick Junction Railway line is approximately 192 kilometres of railway infrastructure linking population centres across the south of the country. But it is currently severely under-used. The whole line has been identified as under-performing and earmarked by a national report for possible closure.

The nation’s financial resources are under considerable pressure at this time and there is a consequent need to reduce losses on the rail network. An under-performing rail line is a natural candidate for closure. Iarnród Éireann has announced its intention to terminate passenger services on the Rosslare-Waterford section of the line and they have set out their business case for doing so. The decision to terminate is subject to approval by the National Transport Authority (NTA).

The Rosslare-Waterford section currently only operates one daily passenger service each way. A return journey within the day is possible only in one direction, with one service into Waterford early in the morning and a return journey late afternoon. Few people, around 25, use the service daily. Many respondents to the consultation phase of this study have identified service level issues that would keep demand levels low. These include a low frequency of service, inconvenient timings and the lack of good interconnection with ferry or other rail services.

This Study

The NTA has invited a submission from the affected regional and local authorities to inform its decision. This report has been commissioned by the South-East Regional Authority, the Mid-West Regional Authority and their constituent local authorities to form part of that submission.

The project team, namely KSA, Imrecon and Fisher Associates, has carried out a comprehensive analysis of the complete Rosslare-Waterford-Limerick rail corridor, an in-depth review of all of the relevant policy context, considered the socio-economic and business case for an alternative strategy to address the performance issues and reviewed the business case submitted by Iarnród Éireann to the NTA.

The Rail Corridor

The South-East region comprising of Carlow, Kilkenny, South Tipperary, Waterford and Wexford had a population of 460,838 persons in 2006.The population for the South-East Region is projected to increase from 487,800 persons in 2008 to 580,500-596,500 persons in 2022. The Mid-West region comprising of Clare, Limerick and North Tipperary had a population of 361,028 persons in 2006. The population of the Mid- West region is projected to increase from 371,900 persons in 2008 to 462,300-475,000 in 2022.

A 20km buffer either side of the overall Rosslare-Waterford-Limerick rail line was established to represent the potential ‘catchment’ of those that could use or be impacted by the rail service along the rail line. There was a population of 464,210 persons recorded in 2006 within a 20km buffer along the corridor with a population of 316,130 persons recorded in 2006 within a 10km buffer along the corridor. A more focussed 20km and 10km buffer was also established for the Rosslare-Waterford section of the rail line. A population of 247,710 was recorded within a 20km buffer along this section of the corridor with a population of 117,920 within a 10km buffer.

Policy Framework

The EU, national, regional and local framework of planning policies and strategic plans is considered to be integral to the country’s economic vitality, which in turn underpins the rating of Government debt.

At the EU and national levels, there is recognition of the need for integrated transport strategies to support polycentric development. In the South-East Region, the National Spatial Strategy (NSS) identifies Waterford City as a Gateway, supported by Wexford Town and Kilkenny City as Hubs, forming a nationally strategic ‘growth triangle’ with a critical mass of population to drive development in the South-East region.

The NSS identifies that the objective of balanced regional development will be supported by an improved network of roads and public transport, and specifically that ‘Ireland’s transport networks must build on Ireland’s radial transport system of main roads and rail lines connecting Dublin to other regions, by developing an improved mesh or network of roads and public transport services’. Another objective is to enhance international access to all parts of the country ‘by facilitating effective interchange possibilities between the national transport network and international airports and sea ports’.

At the same time, the Smarter Travel policy for sustainable transport highlights the need for a modal shift to public transport and other sustainable forms of travel.

The NSS and the South-East Region’s growth and settlement strategies seek to ensure population growth enhances the critical mass in the Gateways, Hubs and County Towns. Consistent with national and regional policy, the Wexford County Development Plan identifies the key settlements on the Rosslare-Waterford rail line as strategic growth centres, in a county that has seen and projects relatively high rates of growth in population. The presence of infrastructure, specifically transport infrastructure, integrated transport systems and the scope to enhance transport services, plays an important role in supporting these strategies.

The conclusion is that a viable rail service on the Rosslare-Limerick line, and specifically on the Rosslare- Waterford section, would contribute materially to the objectives behind the national and regional policy framework. A decision to close passenger services on a rail line linking population centres identified as a Gateway and a supporting Hub, would seriously be in conflict with the thrust of national and regional policy.

The key question is therefore whether the line is capable of generating enough passenger traffic to make a material contribution to these policy objectives.

The Business Case

The project team has identified a number of critical shortcomings in the Iarnród Éireann business case for terminating passenger services on the Rosslare-Waterford line. It is considered that these shortcomings render the business case an unsafe basis for the NTA decision or, indeed, the decision that CIÉ would be required to make under the Transport Act, 1958. This report considers the business case for an alternative option.

Low frequency services, especially with poor interconnections with other services, cannot be expected to attract large numbers of travellers. Iarnród Éireann’s survey of passengers on the Rosslare-Waterford service shows that passengers on the existing service substantially represent one segment of the market: people living in rural Wexford County and studying at educational establishments in Waterford City. Experience elsewhere, in particular in the UK, suggests that services can be successful when they appeal to diverse needs of the travelling public, where no one market segment would be big enough to justify a rail service but where together they achieve a critical mass.

The project team has developed a quantitative estimate of the potential of the line to attract passenger traffic between the key population and employment centres. This submission’s conclusive analysis identifies that the critical mass and the natural economic linkages between the two centres of Waterford and Wexford provide the natural foundation for a rail transport market. In the 2006 census, these two centres alone represented employment in excess of 30,000, with a total population within 10km of the Wexford/Rosslare- Waterford rail corridors of 125,000. The pattern of commuting revealed in the Central Statistics Office (CSO) POWCAR data (2006) showed that rather more workers commuted east into Wexford than commuted west into Waterford. The role of Wexford as a supporting Hub to the Gateway city of Waterford, together with their traditional relationship as neighbouring county capitals, indicate that economic and social linkages between the two centres should be relatively strong.

It is evident that the natural rail market for the Rosslare-Waterford incorporates Wexford Town. This submission has developed an illustrative timetable of substantially more frequent rail services that would more appropriately meet that market’s needs.

To identify the potential of those rail services, the submission has carried out comparative analysis with four rural rail lines in England and Wales which are considered reasonably successful. Based on levels of patronage on the comparator lines in relation to the population and service statistics on those lines, it has been identified a range of estimates of future passenger numbers travelling by rail between Wexford/Rosslare and Waterford, depending on how the service is enhanced and developed. This report’s analysis indicates that the more frequent services, properly promoted, should become dramatically more attractive for the travelling public. These levels of traffic would be consistent with the line being economically sustainable, while achieving benefits in terms of reduced congestion, better access for disadvantaged people and closer economic ties between the population and employment centres of the South-East.

Importantly, the necessary improvements in service frequency do not depend on any substantial improvements to the infrastructure and require only rolling stock that would be justified by the potential levels of traffic. Rail is characterised by fixed costs which means that the optimum strategy for a rail line is generally to maximise the use of existing infrastructure. That strategy has not been tried in a sustained way on this line and our analysis suggests that it would generate proportionately positive economic benefits for the region, benefits that could not realistically be generated by alternative bus services.

At the same time, this submission’s analysis has identified significant potential demand for freight services on the Rosslare-Limerick line, including on the Rosslare-Waterford section.

Community Rail Partnership

However, the analysis of this submission has identified an important condition for successful development of the line. This submission is, accordingly, informed by the experience in the UK that shows that successful development of rural lines requires a local focus. The national train and rail operator is necessarily primarily focused on its core national network and cannot always be expected to deliver the focus, energy and ideas that are so important for successful development of lines that are secondary to the core network. These are community rail lines. Over the last decade in the UK, the strategy for community rail lines has recognised the important role that Community Rail Partnerships (CRPs) can play and there are now abundant examples of thriving partnerships. We believe that successful development of services on the Rosslare-Waterford line, and by extension the Rosslare-Waterford-Limerick Junction line, will depend on a similar kind of CRP being established.

CRPs are not-for-profit organisations comprising local authorities, community groups, rail user groups and train operators, and may also include local businesses, other public bodies and other transport service providers.

The role of the CRP is to promote and develop the railway for the benefit of the local community whilst recognising that, to be successful, it has to deliver more passengers and other benefits for the railway itself. The CRP is able to mobilise the resources of the partner organisations to these ends, which can include financial sponsorship, management time, influence and ideas.

The activities of a CRP will create a sense of local involvement, increase awareness of rail services, identify local needs and help the train operator tailor rail services to meet those needs.

For a CRP to be successful would require the committed involvement of the train operator, Iarnród Éireann, and local organisations, namely regional authorities, local authorities, community stakeholders, etc. The potential upsides for Iarnród Éireann and for the region are significant, but it will require collaboration and commitment on all sides. Importantly, the trains and the infrastructure would continue to be run by Iarnród Éireann.

Conclusion

Overall, the Rosslare-Waterford-Limerick rail corridor represents an important component of national, regional and local transport infrastructure that provides a critical sustainable linkage to key Gateways and Hubs within the south-east, mid-west and south-west regions of Ireland. The presence of the rail line will also influence the delivery of sustainable settlement strategies as set out in the Regional Planning Guidelines and County Development Plans allowing for future sustainable growth and development. The complete rail corridor’s economic, social and tourism potential has not been maximised and it is considered in particular the Rosslare-Waterford segment has a significant contribution to make in this regard.

It is clear that all relevant policy supports and strengthens the continued operation and future development of the rail corridor to ensure sustainable transport infrastructure and accessibility to the regions. It is evident from the comparative analysis that demand from the travelling public for a modern, frequent rail service between the key centres of Wexford and Waterford should be substantial, and substantially greater than contemplated by Iarnród Éireann. We believe that, with a Community Rail Partnership approach, the prospects for the Rosslare-Waterford-Limerick rail line and specifically the Rosslare-Waterford segment are highly positive, for the South-East and Mid-West regions, for the nation and for the rail network.

The conclusive analysis leads this submission to conclude that the evidence base does not support the proposal to terminate passenger services on the Rosslare-Waterford line but instead supports the alternative of providing a sustainable, substantially more frequent passenger service that is capable of attracting passenger traffic from the key markets for public transport in the region.

Accordingly, the central recommendation is that the NTA does not approve the proposal to close passenger services on the Rosslare-Waterford rail line. We identify a number of more detailed recommendations, including on the development of a CRP approach, that would enable economically sustainable passenger rail services on the Rosslare-Waterford-Limerick rail line.